Normally, I'm a big fan of Calculated Risk. I've been reading that blog for quite a few months new. Probably since at least mid-September. That being said, I have a minor quibble with the entry of the above title.
I saw the post's title, looked at the graph and thought, "Oh crap!! Things are getting worse!!" When I got to the list of reasons posted for the decline I immediately latched onto bullet point five for comfort:
Due to the lack of volume and Chinese New Year, Maersk 6700 TEU/week vessel did not make any calls in LA during the month of February (which is traditionally a low volume month).
If you look at the other years displayed on the graph, they "all" have a saw-tooth pattern to them. It's not crazy to assume that sometime in the very near future the derivative of the volume flux through the Port of Los Angeles will switch from negative to positive.
Heh. I just used "derivative" in a sentence.
So yeah, things are worse. That's a big delta from max to min. But, it shouldn't continue going down for at least a little while.
I'd also like to point out that the Loaded Out curve has an uptick in it for the first time since the middle of last year. Is this uptick the result of seasonal adjustment making the graph less accurate (it happens sometimes) or is it an actual uptick? If so, does that mean something? I, for one, would like to know.
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